Baltimore Faces Uncertain Weekend Snow Threat as Forecasts Show 30–40% Chance of a 6-Inch Storm

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Forecasters are increasingly confident that a storm will develop near the East Coast this weekend, but how that system ultimately affects Baltimore remains one of the biggest unanswered questions heading into the middle of the week.

As of Tuesday, meteorologists say the setup supports either a meaningful snow event or very little accumulation at all, depending on the storm’s exact track and timing. Current GFS ensemble guidance places Baltimore’s chances of receiving at least 6 inches of snow at roughly 30–40%, a signal strong enough to get attention — but far from a guarantee.

What We Know Right Now

There is growing agreement on several key points:

• A coastal storm system is likely to develop near the East Coast this weekend
• Cold air will be in place, meaning precipitation would likely fall as snow rather than sleet or freezing rain
• This system is not the same type of storm as the one that recently impacted the region

Unlike the previous storm, forecasters say the thermal profile with this setup is colder and cleaner, making mixed precipitation less likely. For Baltimore, the primary question is increasingly snow or no snow, rather than ice versus snow.

What We Still Don’t Know — And Why Baltimore Is on the Line

Despite improving confidence in storm development, critical details remain unresolved, especially for central Maryland.

Uncertainty centers on:

• How close the storm tracks to the coastline
• Whether the heaviest snow shield sets up west or east of Baltimore
• How quickly the system strengthens as it moves north

A slight eastward shift could keep heavier snow offshore, leaving Baltimore with minimal impact. A shift west could place the city within a deformation band capable of producing several inches of snow in a relatively short time.

“This is a narrow-margin setup — Baltimore is close enough to the edge that small changes matter a lot,” forecasters caution.

What the Probability Maps Are Showing

Ensemble snowfall probability maps highlight a gradient across the Mid-Atlantic:

• Higher snow probabilities over parts of central Pennsylvania and interior Virginia
• Lower but notable probabilities across Maryland, including the Baltimore metro area
• A sharp drop-off closer to the immediate coast

Baltimore currently sits near a transition zone — not favored for a major storm, but far from out of the conversation. That 30–40% probability for 6 inches reflects a meaningful subset of model outcomes showing a plowable snowfall.

Why This Storm Is So Hard to Pin Down

The storm’s complexity lies in how multiple atmospheric features interact:

• A southern stream disturbance supplying moisture
• Northern energy influencing how far west precipitation spreads
• The speed at which the coastal low intensifies

If these pieces phase efficiently, snowfall potential increases quickly. If they remain slightly out of sync, Baltimore could see little more than flurries.

That wide spread of possibilities is exactly why forecasters are urging patience — and close monitoring — rather than firm snowfall calls at this stage.

What Residents Should Do Now

While it’s too early for watches or warnings, officials recommend early awareness, especially for those with weekend travel plans.

Residents should:

• Stay alert for forecast updates through midweek
• Prepare for the possibility of rapid forecast changes
• Avoid locking in assumptions based on early model runs

Emergency managers stress that probability does not equal prediction — but it does mean the scenario is plausible enough to take seriously.

Bottom Line for Baltimore

At this point, Baltimore’s weekend outlook remains balanced on a knife’s edge.

A storm near the East Coast appears increasingly likely. Whether it delivers a meaningful snowfall to the city — or passes just far enough away to spare it — is still undecided. With a 30–40% chance of at least 6 inches, this is not a storm to ignore, even if confidence remains limited.

Do you think Baltimore gets a real snowstorm this weekend, or does it miss out again? Share your take and follow the forecast with us at FatCityFeed.com.