Tight Race for California’s 9th Congressional District

Election Day Projections:
A week since Election Day, the Associated Press projects that incumbent Josh Harder (D-CA) and Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican, will advance to the November ballot for California’s 9th Congressional District. Harder leads with 52.71% of the vote, while Lincoln follows at 28.49%.

Survey Findings:
An internal memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee reveals Lincoln leading Harder 44% to 40% among 400 likely voters. Despite being less known, Lincoln's and Harder's net favorability ratings are closely matched, setting the stage for a competitive showdown.

Candidate Profiles:

• Kevin Lincoln: Praised for his Marine service and mayoral achievements, Lincoln is positioned as the valley's advocate for addressing crime, homelessness, and inflation.
• Josh Harder: Facing criticism for financial investments and accused of tax evasion, Harder emphasizes his dedication to taxing the wealthy and campaign finance reform. His office highlights his refusal of corporate PAC money and advocacy for stock trading bans for members of Congress.

Voter Preferences:
Lincoln's support jumps to 48% among voters familiar with his background and policy goals. Harder gains favor at 46% when his efforts to expand affordable healthcare and tackle homelessness are highlighted. However, Lincoln maintains a lead of 50% to 43% when directly compared.

District Dynamics:
The 9th District, primarily in Stockton and covering most of San Joaquin County along with parts of Contra Costa and Sacramento counties, is a battleground after redistricting. Although leaning Democratic, the district’s race is competitive, with Lincoln looking to flip the seat.

Candidates’ Backgrounds:

• Josh Harder: First elected in 2018 for District 10, Harder moved to District 9 post-redistricting and advocates for healthcare expansion and campaign finance reform.
• Kevin Lincoln: Stockton's mayor since 2020, Lincoln's diverse background includes military service, pastoral work, and executive leadership education.

Looking Ahead:
As November approaches, both Harder and Lincoln are gearing up for an intense campaign in this critical district, emphasizing their distinct visions for the Central Valley's future.

The battle for California’s 9th Congressional District encapsulates the broader political tensions in the state, promising to be a race to watch in the coming months.